Harley Davidson Valuation

HOG Stock  USD 19.56  0.24  1.21%   
At this time, the firm appears to be undervalued. Harley Davidson retains a regular Real Value of $21.02 per share. The prevalent price of the firm is $19.56. Our model calculates the value of Harley Davidson from evaluating the firm fundamentals such as Current Valuation of 5.78 B, return on equity of 0.14, and Return On Asset of 0.0326 as well as inspecting its technical indicators and probability of bankruptcy. Key fundamental drivers impacting Harley Davidson's valuation include:
Price Book
0.6548
Enterprise Value
5.8 B
Enterprise Value Ebitda
6.9608
Price Sales
0.5097
Forward PE
6.2657
Undervalued
Today
19.56
Please note that Harley Davidson's price fluctuation is very steady at this time. Calculation of the real value of Harley Davidson is based on 3 months time horizon. Increasing Harley Davidson's time horizon generally increases the accuracy of value calculation and significantly improves the predictive power of the methodology used.
The fair value of the Harley stock is determined by what a typical buyer is willing to pay for full or partial control of Harley Davidson. Since Harley Davidson is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of Harley Stock. However, Harley Davidson's intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
Historical Market  19.56 Real  21.02 Target  26.5 Hype  19.56 Naive  18.59
The real value of Harley Stock, also known as its intrinsic value, is the underlying worth of Harley Davidson Company, which is reflected in its stock price. It is based on Harley Davidson's financial performance, growth prospects, management team, or industry conditions. The intrinsic value of Harley Davidson's stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratio, or price-to-book ratio. That value may differ from its current market price, which is determined by supply and demand factors such as investor sentiment, market trends, or news.
21.02
Real Value
22.77
Upside
Estimating the potential upside or downside of Harley Davidson helps investors to forecast how Harley stock's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of Harley Davidson more accurately as focusing exclusively on Harley Davidson's fundamentals will not take into account other important factors:
Earnings
Estimates
LowProjectedHigh
0.730.971.21
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.8119.5621.31
Details
Potential
Annual Dividend
LowForecastedHigh
0.450.470.49
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
24.1226.5029.42
Details
When choosing an evaluation method for Harley Davidson, ensure it is appropriate for the firm given its current financial situation and market classification. If more than one evaluation category is relevant, we suggest using all methods to arrive at a better estimate.

Harley Davidson Cash

1.92 Billion

Harley Revenue by Product

Harley Davidson Total Value Analysis

Harley Davidson is currently estimated to have company total value of 5.78 B with market capitalization of 2.38 B, debt of 7.03 B, and cash on hands of 1.59 B. Please note that company total value may be misleading and is a subject to accounting gimmicks. We encourage investors to carefully check all of the Harley Davidson fundamentals before making security assessment based on enterprise value of the company
  Takeover PriceMarket CapDebt ObligationsCash
5.78 B
2.38 B
7.03 B
1.59 B

Harley Davidson Investor Information

About 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.65. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Harley Davidson has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.57. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 10th of April 2000. Based on the analysis of Harley Davidson's profitability, liquidity, and operating efficiency, Harley Davidson is doing better financially today then in previous quarter. It has a moderate probability of reporting better financial numbers in March.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Operating Profit Margin0.110.0723
Way Up
Slightly volatile
Total Cash From Operating Activities705.4 M1.2 B
Way Down
Pretty Stable
Operating Income646.8 M479.1 M
Significantly Up
Pretty Stable

Harley Davidson Asset Utilization

The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. Harley Davidson has an asset utilization ratio of 43.65 percent. This implies that the Company is making $0.44 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that Harley Davidson is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.
 
Black Monday
 
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Housing Crash
 
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Covid
 
Interest Hikes

Harley Davidson Profitability Analysis

Considering Harley Davidson's profitability and operating efficiency indicators, Harley Davidson's profitability may be sliding down. It has an above-average probability of reporting lower numbers next quarter. Profitability indicators assess Harley Davidson's ability to earn profits and add value for shareholders.
 
Net Income  
First Reported
1985-09-30
Previous Quarter
107.6 M
Current Value
377.4 M
Quarterly Volatility
104.3 M
 
Black Monday
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
At this time, Harley Davidson's Pretax Profit Margin is most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The Harley Davidson's current Operating Profit Margin is estimated to increase to 0.11, while Gross Profit is projected to decrease to roughly 1.5 B.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Gross Profit Margin0.280.31
Moderately Down
Slightly volatile
Net Profit Margin0.07310.079
Significantly Down
Very volatile
Operating Profit Margin0.110.0723
Way Up
Slightly volatile
Return On Assets0.04190.0441
Notably Down
Slightly volatile
Return On Equity0.260.17
Way Up
Slightly volatile
For Harley Davidson profitability analysis, we use financial ratios and fundamental drivers that measure the ability of Harley Davidson to generate income relative to revenue, assets, operating costs, and current equity. These fundamental indicators attest to how well Harley Davidson utilizes its assets to generate profit and value for its shareholders. The profitability module also shows relationships between Harley Davidson's most relevant fundamental drivers. It provides multiple suggestions of what could affect the performance of Harley Davidson over time as well as its relative position and ranking within its peers.

Harley Davidson Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual

The next projected EPS of Harley Davidson is estimated to be 0.975 with future projections ranging from a low of 0.73 to a high of 1.21. Harley Davidson's most recent 12-month trailing earnings per share (EPS TTM) is at 4.2. Please be aware that the consensus of earnings estimates for Harley Davidson is based on EPS before non-recurring items and includes expenses related to employee stock options.
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
Harley Davidson is projected to generate 0.975 in earnings per share on the 31st of March 2026. Harley Davidson earnings estimates show analyst consensus about projected Harley Davidson EPS (Earning Per Share). It derives the highest and the lowest estimates based on Harley Davidson's historical volatility. Many public companies, such as Harley Davidson, manage the perception of their earnings on a regular basis to make sure that analyst estimates are accurate. Future earnings calculations are also an essential input when attempting to value a firm.

Harley Davidson Earnings Estimation Breakdown

The calculation of Harley Davidson's earning per share is based on the data from the past 12 consecutive months, used for reporting the company's financial figures. The next projected EPS of Harley Davidson is estimated to be 0.975 with the future projection ranging from a low of 0.73 to a high of 1.21. Please be aware that this consensus of annual earnings estimates for Harley Davidson is based on EPS before non-recurring items and includes expenses related to employee stock options.
Last Reported EPS
0.0
0.73
Lowest
Expected EPS
0.975
1.21
Highest

Harley Davidson Earnings Projection Consensus

Suppose the current estimates of Harley Davidson's value are higher than the current market price of the Harley Davidson stock. In this case, investors may conclude that Harley Davidson is overpriced and will exhibit bullish sentiment. On the other hand, if the present value is lower than the stock price, analysts may conclude that the market undervalues the equity. These scenarios may suggest that the market is not as efficient as it should be at the estimation time, and Harley Davidson's stock will quickly adjusts to the new information provided by the consensus estimate.
Number of AnalystsHistorical AccuracyLast Reported EPSEstimated EPS for 31st of March 2026Current EPS (TTM)
1570.72%
0.0
0.975
4.2

Harley Davidson Ownership Allocation

Harley Davidson has a total of 118.14 Million outstanding shares. The majority of Harley Davidson outstanding shares are owned by outside corporations. These institutional investors are usually referred to as non-private investors looking to purchase positions in Harley Davidson to benefit from reduced commissions. Consequently, third-party entities are subject to a different set of regulations than regular investors in Harley Davidson. Please pay attention to any change in the institutional holdings of Harley Davidson as this could imply that something significant has changed or is about to change at the company. Please note that on January 8, 2026, Representative Tim Moore of US Congress acquired $15k to $50k worth of Harley Davidson's common stock.

Harley Davidson Profitability Analysis

The company reported the last year's revenue of 5.19 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 445.18 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.48 B.

Harley Davidson Past Distributions to stockholders

Please note that valuation analysis is one of the essential comprehensive assessments in business. It evaluates Harley Davidson's worth, which you can determine by considering its current assets, liabilities and future cash flows. The investors' valuation analysis is an important metric that will give you a perspective on different companies. It helps you know the worth of the potential investment in Harley Davidson and how it compares across the competition.

About Harley Davidson Valuation

The stock valuation mechanism determines Harley Davidson's current worth on a weekly basis. Our valuation model uses a comparative analysis of Harley Davidson. We calculate exposure to Harley Davidson's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, and relevant financial multiples and ratios and then compare them to those of Harley Davidson's related companies.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Gross Profit2.1 B1.5 B
Pretax Profit Margin 0.09  0.11 
Operating Profit Margin 0.07  0.11 
Net Profit Margin 0.08  0.07 
Gross Profit Margin 0.31  0.28 
Harley Davidson's stock price is the clearest measure of market expectations about its performance. Without stock valuation, investors cannot independently discern whether Harley Davidson's value is low or high relative to the company's performance and growth projections. Determining the market value of Harley Davidson can be done in different ways, such as multiplying its stock price by its outstanding shares.
A single share of Harley Davidson represents a small ownership stake in the entity. As a stockholder of Harley, your percentage of company ownership is determined by dividing the number of shares you own by the total number of shares outstanding and then multiplying that amount by 100. Owning stock in a company generally confers both corporate voting rights and income from any dividends paid to the stock owner.

Harley Davidson Dividends Analysis For Valuation

The Harley Davidson's current Dividends Paid is estimated to increase to about (99.7 M). The current Dividend Yield is estimated to decrease to 0.01. The Harley Davidson's current Retained Earnings Total Equity is estimated to increase to about 3.7 B, while Retained Earnings are projected to decrease to roughly 3.1 B.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Dividends Paid-104.9 M-99.7 M
Dividend Yield 0.02  0.01 
Dividend Payout Ratio 0.18  0.17 
Dividend Paid And Capex Coverage Ratio 3.33  1.82 
There are various types of dividends Harley Davidson can pay to its shareholders, and the actual value of the dividend is determined on a per-share basis. It is to be paid equally to all of Harley shareholders on a specific date, known as the payable date. The cash dividend is the most common type of dividend payment - it is the payment of actual cash from Harley Davidson directly to its shareholders. There are other types of dividends that companies can issue, such as stock dividends or asset dividends. When Harley pays a dividend, it has no impact on its enterprise value. It does, however, lowers the Equity Value of Harley Davidson by the value of the dividends paid out.

Harley Davidson Growth Indicators

Investing in growth stocks can be very risky. If the company such as Harley Davidson does not do well, investors take a loss on the stock when it is time to sell. Also, because growth stocks typically do not pay dividends, the only opportunity an investor has to make money on their investment is when they eventually sell their shares.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding132.3 M
Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y2.407
Forward Price Earnings6.2657

Harley Davidson Current Valuation Indicators

Valuation refers to the process of determining the present value of Harley Davidson and all of its assets. It can be calculated using a number of techniques. As many analysts who try to value Harley we look at many different elements of the entity such as Harley's management, its prospective future earnings, the current market value of the company's assets, as well as its capital structure formation.
Valuations are an essential part of business, for companies themselves, but also for investors. For companies, such as Harley Davidson, valuations can help measure their progress and success and can help them track their performance in the market compared to others. In addition, investors can use Harley Davidson's valuations to help determine the worth of potential investments. They can do this by using data and information made public by a company. Regardless of who the valuation is for, it essentially describes Harley Davidson's worth.

Complementary Tools for Harley Stock analysis

When running Harley Davidson's price analysis, check to measure Harley Davidson's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harley Davidson is operating at the current time. Most of Harley Davidson's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harley Davidson's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harley Davidson's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harley Davidson to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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